LiveEV
NFL Predictor
Predicts the winner and the margin for every NFL game, before kickoff. It places no bets and holds no positions. This is the weakest of our three predictors and that is the sport, not the code — team strength explains 16% of NFL margin variance against 54% in college football. Thirty-two teams under a salary cap are far closer in quality than 134 college programmes, so there is much less for a rating to find.
All-time units
-3.99u
since season start
Win rate
62.7%
51 trades
· -3.6pp vs 66.3¢ avg entry
Avg EV
-1.4pp
model edge at entry
Green days
5/12
days closed positive
Best day
+2.64u
2026-09-13
Avg daily
-0.33u
per day this season
Upcoming picks
One row per game, soonest first. Deliberately not ranked — on the MLB model, sorting picks by how confident we were put the worst ones on top, and there is no reason to expect college football to behave differently until it is tested.
| Game | Pick | Our number | Market | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DAL | DAL | 76.7% | 79.5% | 3.5 pts |
| PHI @ JAX neutral | JAX | 69.7% | not priced | 6.7 pts |
| CHI @ GB | CHI | 59.9% | 59.5% | 4.0 pts |
| HOU @ TEN | HOU | 74.8% | 76.5% | 5.2 pts |
| CIN @ MIA | CIN | 73.1% | 75.5% | 3.2 pts |
| LV @ NE | NE | 64.2% | 63.5% | 6.2 pts |
| MIN @ NO | MIN | 56.7% | 55.5% | 4.5 pts |
| CLE @ NYJ | NYJ | 54.6% | 55.5% | -0.2 pts |
| IND @ PIT | PIT | 56.4% | 57.5% | 0.0 pts |
| NYG @ WSH | NYG | 55.8% | not priced | 1.9 pts |
Brand new and barely tested. 64 settled games
so far. The model itself is built on measurements from thousands of past games — a
20-point rating edge is worth about 18.5 points on the field, and home field is worth 2.62
— but its live record here is far too short to read. Nothing on this page is advice.
Since inception
2026-09-13
2026-10-06
How the last picks went
| Date | Game | Pick | Said | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 | ATL @ NO | NO | 54.7% | 45-24 | ✗ |
| 10-05 | DET @ CAR | DET | 62.8% | 26-32 | ✗ |
| 10-04 | LAC @ SEA | SEA | 75.7% | 23-30 | ✓ |
| 10-04 | KC @ LV | KC | 66.7% | 30-27 | ✓ |
| 10-04 | DEN @ SF | SF | 59.6% | 14-24 | ✓ |
| 10-04 | MIA @ MIN | MIN | 81.7% | 10-15 | ✓ |
| 10-04 | TEN @ BAL | BAL | 84.1% | 18-24 | ✓ |
| 10-04 | NYJ @ CHI | CHI | 65.4% | 12-23 | ✓ |
| 10-04 | NE @ BUF | BUF | 71.4% | 29-26 | ✗ |
| 10-04 | LAR @ PHI | LAR | 62.4% | 24-20 | ✓ |
| 10-04 | JAX @ CIN | JAX | 66.7% | 22-17 | ✓ |
| 10-04 | GB @ TB | GB | 57.4% | 17-14 | ✓ |